Answers are measured from 16,899 open-market insider purchases since 2020, each compared with the S&P 500 over the next 90 days. No AI guessing: every number comes from the data.
Short answer
Do CEO buys beat the market?
Not reliably. CEO and CFO buys beat the S&P 500 over 90 days 45.5% of the time, about the same as all insider buys (45.8%).
All insider buys45.8%
CEO/CFO buys45.5%
No CEO or CFO45.9%
$1M+ buys44.0%
3+ insiders buying46.0%
Share that beat the S&P 500 over 90 days. Dashed line = coin flip (50%). Hover a bar for the number of cases.
Held up in our test
Filed on a Friday + bought in December (tax-loss season): 58% beat the S&P (vs 46% overall), in both halves of the data.
Financial stock, after the 10-year yield rose 0.5+ points: 55% beat the S&P (vs 46% overall), in both halves of the data.
Did not hold up
A high Insider Gauge reading looked predictive in the early years, but it did not hold up in the later out-of-sample period.
Limits
Survivorship bias, price-only returns, one 90-day horizon. History, not a prediction.
Want the full tables? See Setup Odds and the Insider Gauge. Or test yourself with Insider Call. History, not a prediction. Not investment advice.
Quick quiz · 1 question
Setup: 3+ insiders buying, no CEO or CFO, stock down 20%+ in 3 months. How often did the stock beat the S&P 500 over the next 90 days?
It was 50%: 138 of 278 real cases since 2020. That's why we show the odds next to every insider buy.
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