The Insider Gauge: what insiders are telling us about the whole market
Company insiders know their own business best. When unusually many of them buy their own stock at the same time, is the market about to rise? We measured it on every insider purchase since 2020, checked it against what the S&P 500 did next, and log a dated reading every week so you can hold us to it.
This week: 69 out of 100
Insider buying across U.S. stocks over the last 13 weeks was broader than 69% of the readings in the year before (1,301 company-weeks with an open-market insider buy).
After past weeks with readings near 69, the S&P 500 rose over the next 13 weeks in 35 of 46 cases, with a median move of +5.4%.
Honest note: high and low readings did not lead to clearly different results in both halves of the history, so read this as history, not a signal. Not investment advice.
Insider buying breadth vs. the S&P 500
Blue: the Gauge each week (0–100). Dark line: the S&P 500. Green dots: weeks when insider buying was unusually broad.
Does a high reading mean anything?
What the S&P 500 did over the 13 weeks after each kind of reading.
S&P 500 rose over the next 13 weeksfellEach dot is one week. Weeks overlap, so neighbouring dots are not independent.
Hidden facts in 16,899 insider buys
On average 46% of insider buys beat the S&P 500 over 90 days. We tested 122 traits and pairs of traits. A trait only counts if it beat that average in both halves of the history and the gap is too big to be luck.
Warning signs: did worse than average in both halves
Popular beliefs that didn't hold up
Which sectors' insiders beat the market most often?
Share of insider buys that beat the S&P 500 over 90 days. The line in the middle is the 46% average.
Based on 32% of buys (the rest have no sector on file). Sectors with fewer than 60 buys are left out.
Oil and energy insiders
Bars: energy-company insider buys each month. Line: the oil price. Do oil executives buy when oil is cheap, and does it work?
- Not enough energy buys after big oil moves yet to say.
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Insiders and members of Congress buying the same stock
Stocks bought by company insiders (last 90 days) that members of Congress also reported buying (last 60 days). From public disclosures; no conclusions drawn.
The Gauge's track record
Every weekly reading, with what history suggested and what actually happened 13 weeks later.
| Week | Reading | Past median | Check on | Actual S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | 69 | +5.4% | Jan 15 | pending |
How this works, and its limits
- The Gauge: each week we count the companies where an insider bought shares on the open market (SEC Form 4, code P, $10K+), add up the last 13 weeks, and compare that number with the previous 52 weeks. 13 weeks covers a full quarter, so the quarterly "trading windows" after earnings don't distort it.
- Out-of-sample check: every pattern is tested separately on 2020 to March 2023 and on April 2023 to today. Patterns that only worked in one half are not shown as findings.
- Limits: the history starts in 2020, so it covers one crash, one bear market and two rallies. Weekly readings overlap. Delisted companies often have no prices and drop out, which flatters results. Prices only, no dividends.
- This is history, not a prediction and not investment advice. We never take payment to feature a stock.
Related: Setup Odds for every kind of insider buy · this week's cluster buys